Yow left behind a ticking time bomb that was sure to go off sooner or later. It was only a question of when. And when Maryland waved goodbye to James Franklin and allowed him to head to Vanderbilt – confirming that Anderson did not agree with the head-coach-in-waiting deal – the bomb went off last month. With at least an illusion of program stability shattered and fans not exactly cheering for Ralph Friedgen’s career to get a long-term reprieve, Anderson was forced into action.

So I sympathize with the fact that Anderson was at least partially forced into this test. All of that said, however, I still think Anderson utterly failed the test by hiring Randy Edsall.

Randy Edsall has a reputation as a coach that has done a solid job with Connecticut. Not great. Not special. Just solid. Is that good enough? I don’t think so.

Look for Randy Edsall’s signature victories at UConn. Go ahead. Beating 7-6 South Carolina in last year’s PapaJohns Bowl? That’s about as good as it gets. The truth is that UConn has just finished their third straight 8-5 season. 24-15 in three years.

That’s also 11-10 in the Big East in the same timespan. An extraordinarily weak period for the Big East. Rich Rodriguez had left West Virginia just before that time, robbing the conference’s top program of one of the league’s best coaches and replacing him with, well, not a very good coach. Syracuse was in the Greg Robinson ditch during most of that time, just starting to pull themselves back to respectability this season. Louisville had fallen into the Steve Kragthorpe ditch. Coincidentally, Louisville brought in a new coach this season and the re-energized Cardinals promptly beat the tar out of UConn.

Think about it: this has been about as weak of a conference as one can get the last few years. How weak? Counting Bill Stewart’s impending force-out, five of the conference’s eight football coaches have been fired since the end of the 2008 season. 11-10 in that Big East landscape over the last three years? I’m not particularly impressed.

It probably makes sense for Edsall to call Maryland his “dream job,” because he must consider it a dream to get out of the Big East just in the nick of time as Bill Stewart, Greg Robinson, Jim Leavitt, Steve Kragthorpe, and Dave Wannstedt get replaced by Dana Holgorsen (likely upgrade), Doug Marrone (definite upgrade), Skip Holtz (probably upgrade), Charlie Strong (definite upgrade), and Pittsburgh-coach-to-be-named-later (who knows). The only Big East programs that arguably have not made a move to improve are Rutgers, which has long-time coach Greg Schiano, and Cincinnati, which has likely downgraded after Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame.

That’s not to say that Edsall hasn’t been solid at Connecticut. I will not completely rob him of any credit. He’s been solid, if untirely unspectacular. But is solid and entirely unspectacular really what Maryland was going for to take over after one of the most successful coaches in Maryland football history? How on earth is Edsall an improvement over Ralph Friedgen – a coach the school just saw fit to fire?

No one should expect Maryland to win national titles any time soon. But they can be a good program that every couple of years meaningfully competes to win the ACC and/or win 10 games. Assuming that Anderson really had no choice but to let Friedgen go, I believe there were three things Anderson needed in a replacement coach.

First, they needed someone that was going to be a very good recruiter. Washington, DC and the state of Maryland are actually quite decently stocked with talent. There’s also close access to Pennsylvania and Virginia. A good recruiter can build a strong base within just 100-200 miles of College Park, and there is certainly the ability to fill in any extra needs with talent from the state of Florida, thanks to playing FSU every year and Miami on occasion. Maryland has access to talent.

With Virginia Tech, a resurgent FSU, and others, Maryland cannot hope to compete for championships in the ACC merely by scraping the bottom of the barrel for sleepers and scrappers and hoping that most of the rest of the league’s coaches will be too incompetent to take advantage of the talent gap. To improve on what Friedgen accomplished, the new coach needs to have the salesmanship to consistently land recruiting classes in the top 25 range. I’m not calling for #1 classes or even top 10 classes – but Top 25 is a reasonable goal for Maryland to set for most of its recruiting classes. (Rivals.com ranked Friedgen’s last three classes 36th, 26th, and 38th.)

Second, Maryland needs someone that will keep his team consistently at bowl level, and that occasionally – say at least every 3-4 years – will put together a team that will legitimately challenge for a conference championship and have a strong opportunity to win 10 games.

Third, the Terps need someone that can put a scare into the ACC’s top football powers. With FSU seemingly on the right track again, Maryland will simply not be able to recruit at FSU’s level or match the fan backing (i.e., money) that FSU receives in football. They aren’t ready to match Virginia Tech. If Clemson’s administration ever gets as serious about football as their fans, Maryland won’t be able to match their resources. And they’ll never have quite the kind of access to talent that Miami enjoys. But it isn’t about beating those teams every year. It is about beating the middle-of-the-road and bad conference programs regularly and then beating the conference’s best every once in a while. The new coach must consistently produce a team that will force the conference’s best to execute in order to win. To keep fans excited about a team that isn’t winning national titles, the program must give the fans some results to get excited about. An occasional upset is an effective way to do that.

By hiring Randy Edsall, I think Kevin Anderson and Maryland failed on at least two of the three counts.

While Edsall may be a fine evaluator, the available evidence suggests he isn’t much of a recruiter. In fact, he may be a terrible recruiter. Last year the state of Connecticut produced, by my count, 11 FBS recruits and 9 BCS conference recruits. UConn signed just two of them. That’s the same number as Florida State signed from Connecticut and less than Boston College. The pattern repeats in past years. The early excuse I’ve heard is that UConn was hopeless to compete against big, glamorous names such as Florida or Florida State. OK, but what about getting beat by Boston College? Purdue? Colorado? Rutgers? Are Edsall partisans going to claim that UConn has higher admissions standards than those schools or that Edsall just didn’t want any of those recruits? At some point the excuses start to hit a wall.

When asked about his inability to recruit within the school’s home state, Randy Edsall blew up at the state’s high school coaches for, effectively, not making enough of an effort to reach out to UConn. Excuse me? It was Randy Edsall’s job to recruit for UConn, not the job of the state’s high school coaches. Edsall’s seeming inability to improve UConn’s recruiting lot, and his inability to connect with in-state high school coaches, does not bode well for Maryland. Frankly, while the talent stock is deeper, the competition for recruits within Maryland’s prime recruiting territory will likely be fiercer than anything Edsall faced at UConn. And it isn’t like he is sliding into a top-of-the-line program facilities-wise. While Edsall can make up for some of that by hiring some good recruiters for assistant positions, ultimately a program’s recruiting ceiling is always set by the head coach.

As for making Maryland dangerous against the ACC’s top programs – using upsets and flashy wins to generate enthusiasm in the fanbase – there really isn’t much in Edsall’s history to suggest he will deliver. As I said, where are Edsall’s signature wins at UConn? Where are the occasional games that galvanize a fanbase, put the school front-and-center on Sportscenter, and start to make the nation talk about the school?

My quick Wikipedia research shows Edsall delivered only one win over a team ranked in the top 25 at the time they played (South Florida in 2007). And Edsall has never had a 10-win season. If people talk about UConn, they mostly do so as an afterthought – “Oh yes, those guys, nice team, solid…next!” I think this, of all reasons, is really why the reaction from the Maryland fanbase has been so overwhelmingly negative about Edsall’s hiring. Not a good start.

Where Maryland might have succeeded is in finding someone that will, at a minimum, likely hold them within the bowl eligibility range. That may not be much of a feat considering that the ACC has nine teams in bowls this year, but it is something. It is unlikely that Edsall’s teams will be unprepared against inferior competition. I wouldn’t expect them to be upset too often by lesser teams. If my concerns about Edsall’s recruiting prowess are borne out, however, the pocket of “lesser teams” might shrink in the coming years.

Is that good enough for Maryland fans? I have a feeling that in four or five years we are going to find out that it is not.

As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only (primarily to test myself by picking every game). I pick games straight up and against the point spread, where a point spread is available at USA Today’s odds page. I use the first available current spread listed; i.e., the spread at the time of making the picks.

The numbers in parentheses identify my point spread picks next to the relevant team. For example, if I say “South Carolina over Southern Mississippi (+14),” I’m picking South Carolina to win straight up, but taking Southern Mississippi with the points.

As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only (primarily to test myself by picking every game). I pick games straight up and against the point spread, where a point spread is available at USA Today’s odds page. I use the first available current spread listed; i.e., the spread at the time of making the picks.

The numbers in parentheses identify my point spread picks next to the relevant team. For example, if I say “South Carolina over Southern Mississippi (+14),” I’m picking South Carolina to win straight up, but taking Southern Mississippi with the points.

[NOTE: I will try to post results from last week in the next day or two. I am traveling.]

Iowa over Indiana (+17)
Michigan State (-24.5) over Minnesota
Michigan (-3) over Illinois
Virginia (-1) over Duke
Syracuse over Louisville (+6)
Clemson (-3.5) over NC State
Miami (-7.5) over Maryland
Wisconsin (-20) over Purdue
Air Force (-6.5) over Army
Florida (-14) over Vanderbilt
Georgia (-43.5) over Idaho State
Kentucky over Charleston Southern (+45)
Oklahoma State over Baylor (+7.5)
Auburn (-39.5) over Chattanooga
Ball State over Akron (+13.5)
Tulsa over Rice (+17)
Colorado over Kansas (+9)
Temple (-3) over Kent State
BYU (-18) over UNLV
Utah State (-18) over New Mexico State
Florida State over North Carolina (+10.5)
Nebraska (-18) over Iowa State
Navy (+3) over East Carolina
Boston College (-3) over Wake Forest
Penn State (-6) over Northwestern
Oregon over Washington (+35)
Boise State over Hawaii (+21)
Southern Miss (-9.5) over Tulane
Utah (+4.5) over TCU
Alabama over LSU (+6.5)
California (-14) over Washington State
Fresno State (Pickem) over Louisiana Tech
UAB over Marshall (+9.5)
Florida Atlantic (-2.5) over Western Kentucky
Nevada (-11) over Idaho
Wyoming (-9) over New Mexico
Oregon State (-5) over UCLA
Ole Miss over Louisiana-Lafayette (+28)
Oklahoma (-3) over Texas A&M
Troy (-11.5) over North Texas
Arkansas (+4) over South Carolina
Florida International over Louisiana-Monroe (+9.5)
Stanford over Arizona (+9.5)
Texas (-3.5) over Kansas State
Missouri (-4) over Texas Tech
Tennessee over Memphis (+20)
SMU over UTEP (+6.5)
San Diego State (-17) over Colorado State
Southern California (-5.5) over Arizona State

The only Upset Special (picking underdog of at least 7 points to win straight up) this week was contained in my mid-week picks – Rutgers over South Florida. Rutgers lost but beat the spread (a season-long pattern for my Upset Specials).

As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only (primarily to test myself by picking every game). I pick games straight up and against the point spread, where a point spread is available at USA Today’s odds page. I use the first available current spread listed; i.e., the spread at the time of making the picks.

The numbers in parentheses identify my point spread picks next to the relevant team. For example, if I say “South Carolina over Southern Mississippi (+14),” I’m picking South Carolina to win straight up, but taking Southern Mississippi with the points.

I will make picks on the Saturday games later in the week. I did pick an Upset Special (picking underdog of at least 7 points to win straight up) for these weekday games – Rutgers over South Florida.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only (primarily to test myself by picking every game). I pick games straight up and against the point spread, where a point spread is available at USA Today’s odds page. I use the first available current spread listed; i.e., the spread at the time of making the picks.

The numbers in parentheses identify my point spread picks next to the relevant team. For example, if I say “South Carolina over Southern Mississippi (+14),” I’m picking South Carolina to win straight up, but taking Southern Mississippi with the points.

Today, I’m going to start with Brian Kelly and Notre Dame.

Getting blown out by Navy and losing at home to Tulsa have left Notre Dame fans feeling ugly. Folks around the Internet are getting their shots in on Brian Kelly. One beat writer ominously suggested that the next month of this season will define Brian Kelly’s tenure. And maybe that’s true in a way, but it will not be measured in wins and losses.

Notre Dame could lose every game the rest of the way and it will have no bearing on whether Brian Kelly is cut out to restore Notre Dame or not. What matters is that (a) the underclassmen on the team continue to buy into Brian Kelly’s program, and (b) Kelly is able to recruit athletes to improve the level of Notre Dame’s talent. Doing those things will affect how Notre Dame performs one year from now, two years from now, and three years from now far more than any game won or lost this season. It is then that he will be judged and then when we will find out whether he is a great coach or just another hotshot pretender.

In theory, Notre Dame should almost never lose to a Navy or a Tulsa, if for no other reason than the talent differential should be enormous. Here’s the problem: right now it isn’t. Notre Dame just doesn’t have the talent to regularly bulldoze those scrappy little underdogs. Notre Dame’s talent and depth in 2010 is just not enough to overpower even military academies or mid-level Conference USA teams. As hard as that is to swallow, it is something Notre Dame fans must come to accept for now. It is the only way that they can reasonably and fairly judge Brian Kelly this season.

What Fighting Irish fans should take away from this season’s struggles is that maybe Kelly’s rebuilding task is a bigger job than they wanted to believe in August. Indeed, it is rarely easy for a new coach to come in and succeed right away. Master of the coaching universe Nick Saban went 7-6 in his first year at Alabama (it included a loss at home to Louisiana-Monroe). Even Lou Holtz could only manage a 5-6 record in his first season with the Fighting Irish. Bear Bryant, Bobby Bowden, Joe Paterno, perhaps the greatest coaches of the last fifty years – they were a combined 15-15-1 in their first years at Alabama, Florida State, and Penn State. Who knows if Brian Kelly will come close to measuring up to those names, but only being reasonably patient will allow Notre Dame fans to find out.

Some may point to Charlie Weis’ first two teams and suggest that it proves that a new coach can come in and win right away. If the situation is right, perhaps. The problem is that Weis came in and took over a program that had experience and talent. When Willingham was fired, he left behind a team that was ready to peak under the right guidance. I continue to suspect that one reason Notre Dame fired Willingham when they did is because they felt that Willingham was not the man to restore Notre Dame to elite status, but they worried that he might do just well enough with what he had returning to make it hard to fire him at the end of his five year deal. I know this is hard for Willingham-haters to accept, but maybe, just maybe, Charlie Weis was actually stepping into a decent situation for a first-year head coach.

The difference is that last year, 2009, was supposed to be the peak of the Weis era – the year when it all came together. And they went 6-6. Weis failed to either recruit or develop defensive talent, and some of the best offensive talent he recruited left after last season. For Brian Kelly, he didn’t come in with the luxury of an experienced offensive line or quarterback (or depth at quarterback, for that matter). There were plenty of returning starters on defense, but it was the same defense that didn’t exactly look like a bundle of talent in 2009. This was never about just reloading – it has always been about rebuilding, from the ground floor. That takes time.

I know Notre Dame fans’ anxiety is a little amped up because they’ve also sustained some recruiting losses lately. Look, Notre Dame is not in a place right now where it can go into Florida and steal a bunch of guys away from Florida’s big 3. If you look where the three defensive linemen that de-committed are planning on going, one has committed to Florida, and the other two are probably going to head to Florida or Florida State. Any coach working out of Northern Indiana is going to lose more of those battles than he wins, especially for a team that has not been nationally relevant in years.

While Notre Dame can and must continue to recruit in places like California and Florida, Notre Dame fans should not expect too much out of those states for now. I believe Notre Dame will best rebuild by first and foremost mining the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. There are a lot of Notre Dame fans still left in those parts, and the name carries far more prestige in, say, Western Pennsylvania than it does in, say, South Florida. With the Big East struggling, and Penn State and Michigan a little uncertain, Notre Dame has an opportunity to capitalize in those areas. Only once Notre Dame is nationally relevant – and when they are featured on ESPN as more than a reason for Mark May and Rece Davis to mock Lou Holtz – will they begin to really see Notre Dame go in and win some of the battles they are losing right now.

Whether Brian Kelly is the man to capitalize for Notre Dame and restore the Irish is an open question. What we do know – or should know – is that question will not be in any way answered simply by Notre Dame’s 2010 win-loss record. Brian Kelly has more important things to worry about for now if he wants to succeed in South Bend.

At any rate, here are my initial bowl match-up predictions:

BCS Title: Oregon vs. Utah
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Pittsburgh
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Champs Sports Bowl: Miami vs. Syracuse
Sun Bowl: NC State vs. Oregon State
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Mississippi State
Independence Bowl: Maryland vs. Air Force
Military Bowl: Virginia vs. East Carolina
Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Kansas State
Birmingham Bowl: South Florida vs. Kentucky
St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville vs. Southern Methodist
Capital One Bowl: Iowa vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Florida
Insight Bowl: Penn State vs. Baylor
Gator Bowl: Illinois vs. Arkansas
Texas Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas
Dallas Football Classic: Northwestern vs. Texas Tech
Little Caesars Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Cotton Bowl: Missouri vs. Louisiana State
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Southern California
Liberty Bowl: Central Florida vs. Georgia
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. Army
New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Troy
Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa vs. Hawaii
Godaddy.com Bowl: Ohio vs. Middle Tennessee
Humanitarian Bowl: Temple vs. Boise State
Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs. California
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Navy
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada vs. San Diego State
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State

Off the list (previous ranking): Michigan (27), East Carolina (28), West Virginia (35).

Overall Straight Up: 38-17 (403-129 on the season [.758])
Overall Against The Spread: 21-32-2 (259-252-13 on the season [.507])

In games with a spread of less than 6 points, I went 6-7 straight up (69-60 on the season [.535]) and 5-7-1 against the spread (66-60-4 on the season [.524]).

There were no Upset Specials (picking underdog of at least 7 points straight up) this week. On the season I am 3-12 straight up in Upset Specials and 12-2-1 against the spread in those games.

I followed up my best spread picking week of the season with what might be my worst spread picking week of the season. It was a week that caused enough damage that it will probably require two excellent weeks for my overall record to recover.

That means that the next Minnesota coach must embrace the challenge of recruiting nationally when the program does not have much of a national presence. I do not think this is as hard as people will make it out to be – Glen Mason was able to heavily mine Ohio and Tim Brewster widened pipelines to Texas and Florida – but it certainly is not the kind of thing that can be done by a coach that disdains recruiting or that isn’t a hard worker.

On the other hand, Minnesota is not going to go toe-to-toe in talent with Ohio State any time soon. Facing a talent deficit means that the next Gopher coach must have a proven ability to scheme and to succeed as a tactician at the college level. This is the part of the equation that Minnesota forgot when they hired Tim Brewster.

Ideally, the next coach will be someone that has shown he can take a poor program and lead them to new heights. If that cannot be found in a head coach willing to come to Minneapolis, then perhaps try to find an assistant coach that has participated in the same thing at another school (or has trained under a brilliant coach). And if Minnesota can find someone that will excite their fanbase enough to fill that new stadium, then all the better.

Here are some options I think Minnesota should consider*:

Paul Johnson – Minnesota would have to open the checkbook real wide to land Johnson, one of the highest-regarded coaches in the country and already making more than $2 million a year at Georgia Tech. But if Minnesota wants to make a blockbuster hire of someone that is proven at the FCS level, then there may not be a better shot than Paul Johnson. He would likely give Minnesota the best chance at immediate success. He might not set imaginations on fire, but he would likely get Minnesota back to bowl eligibility quickly and would be giving other teams fits for years.

Jim Harbaugh – While it may be seem laughable that Minnesota might be able to make such blockbuster hires as Johnson or Harbaugh, we’re not talking about the Gophers stealing these guys from Alabama or Ohio State. We’re talking about Stanford and Georgia Tech. If Minnesota is willing to pay top dollar – perhaps pay Harbaugh in the $3-4 million range – than it might be enough to lure Harbaugh back to the Midwest. Harbaugh is a proven FCS head coach and he has taken Stanford from the absolute bottom to a top 20 team in just four years. This would count as a dream hire, and if Minnesota is actually serious about football success, then they owe it to their fans to place a call to Harbaugh’s agent.

Al Golden – Golden has done a fabulous job at Temple, taking them from one of the country’s most moribund programs to a contender in the MAC. Golden will be a hot commodity – talk has already started about him being the one to take over for Joe Paterno whenever Paterno decides to let Penn State move forward – and Minnesota would be showered with praise for grabbing Golden while he’s hot. I don’t think Minnesota should treat Golden like a slam-dunk, as they still need to see whether he would be a good fit and whether he would have the tools to recruit to Minnesota, but any short-list for Minnesota AD Joel Maturi must include Al Golden.

Kirby Smart – The Alabama defensive coordinator is already earmarked for bigger and better things – maybe even an SEC job when it opens. Smart might not be a cultural fit for Minnesota – his ties are all with the South and he has never coached further north than Athens, Georgia – but if Minnesota wants to try and make an aggressive attempt to catch lightning in a bottle, then they could do far worse than going after some of that Saban magic.

Gus Malzahn – Just imagine the possibilities with Marqueis Gray playing the Cameron Newton role in Malzahn’s high-paced offense. Malzahn is still relatively young in terms of college coaching experience, but he has quickly established himself as a formidable offensive coordinator. The possibilities with his offense would quickly excite fans – and excited fans mean tickets sold. With Minnesota having already squandered the excitement from the new stadium, a quick enthusiasm jolt would not be a bad thing. And since Malzahn’s star is rising and the head coaching offers are expected to roll in soon, Minnesota may be able to act quickly and steal Malzahn away from a more powerful program.

Dana Dimel – Things did not go well for Dinel in Houston, and he has been in sort of coaching exile since. But his record at Wyoming was solid, and he has learned under Bill Snyder, who has a remarkable record of success training head coaches. Dimel may be worth an investigation to see if he has learned enough to make his second go-round as a head coach more successful.

David Yost – Missouri’s offensive coordinator may have a hairstyle that does not scream “head coach,” but in lieu of the impossible dream of scoring Gary Pinkel, Yost should be considered simply because what has been built in Missouri – with the participation of Yost – is precisely what needs to be built in Minnesota. Missouri is a strong, perennial bowl program. Bonus points for Yost in that, not only does he have experience as a coordinator, but he is a long-time recruiting coordinator as well. He’d likely connect well with students – a key for Minnesota if it wants to fill its stadium. A riskier choice off of the radar, but if Maturi is looking to make an inspired choice, then he must think outside of just the usual cast of candidates.

* – This is not rank-ordered and is not meant to be an exhaustive list of potential candidates. I also did not do full background checks of these guys – I’ll leave that chore to Minnesota’s AD; I just make unsolicited suggestions. And, yes, I realize I’ve left out some big names that are on the open market. At least with some of them, that was on purpose.